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Jan 17, 2013
01/13
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economy barely grew 1% in the fourth quarter. we have a situation where it could be sluggish in the first quarter. we're up five points on the s&p since december since we had qe3 and the fed indicating they would target unemployment. to us it feels like we're in the stratosphere. >> the market down 20%. isn't that recession you're talking about? >> you got to think there's a danger. doesn't have to be a recession. you have to think there's a danger. if you look at the dynamics, you look at the consumer confidence numbers which are beginning to roll a little bit, there is a danger that could take place and a lot will depend on the resolution. look at the vix and these low levels on this downward sloping trend line the pattern is very similar to april of 2011. i'm sure you all remember that the stock market held up a little bit longer and turned in may and then between may and august it dropped 22%. what was the biggest factor? the debt ceiling negotiations. >> tom the market really rolled over in the spring of 2011 because trichet
economy barely grew 1% in the fourth quarter. we have a situation where it could be sluggish in the first quarter. we're up five points on the s&p since december since we had qe3 and the fed indicating they would target unemployment. to us it feels like we're in the stratosphere. >> the market down 20%. isn't that recession you're talking about? >> you got to think there's a danger. doesn't have to be a recession. you have to think there's a danger. if you look at the dynamics,...
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Jan 14, 2013
01/13
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to the economy. what we're not going to do is put ourselves in a position where in order to pay for spending that we've already incurred, that our two options are we're either going to profoundly hurt the economy and hurt middle-class families and hurt seniors and hurt kids who are trying to go to college, or alternatively we're going to blow up the economy. we're not going to do that. not whatever congress asks me they're going to have to send me something that's sensible. and we shouldn't be doing this, and we shouldn't be doing this on a one to three-month time frame. why would we do that? this is the united states of america, major. we can't manage our affairs in such a way that we pay our bills and we provide some certainty in terms of how we pay our bills? look, i don't think anybody would consider my position unreasonable here. i have -- [ inaudible ] major, i am happy to have a conversation about how we reduce our deficits. i'm not going to have a monthly or every three months conversation ab
to the economy. what we're not going to do is put ourselves in a position where in order to pay for spending that we've already incurred, that our two options are we're either going to profoundly hurt the economy and hurt middle-class families and hurt seniors and hurt kids who are trying to go to college, or alternatively we're going to blow up the economy. we're not going to do that. not whatever congress asks me they're going to have to send me something that's sensible. and we shouldn't be...
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Jan 18, 2013
01/13
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don't forget how large that economy is relative to the world economies so i think the market has nothing but not green shoots but blossoming flowers. go buy it. >> so why then, doc, are you still more cautious than the other guys? >> partly because, judge, i like owning options instead of owning equities. i just do. the only times i like owning equities are like for instance when joe and i fight about stocks with nice yield. i mean whether it's a verizon or whether it is intel, if i'm talking about a 4% dividend yielder that i can get in there and write options against it as well and take it to double digits on the return i like that. but i don't like buying apple. i don't like buying a lot of the stocks that don't have the yield, judge, that are attractive to me. instead, i trade the options. >> speaking of verizon i'm glad you mentioned it. next week is a bonanza earnings week. there are so many important companies reporting next week that that is going to decide where this market goes. don't you think? >> yes. the expectations in terms of what the potential growth for eps and the pote
don't forget how large that economy is relative to the world economies so i think the market has nothing but not green shoots but blossoming flowers. go buy it. >> so why then, doc, are you still more cautious than the other guys? >> partly because, judge, i like owning options instead of owning equities. i just do. the only times i like owning equities are like for instance when joe and i fight about stocks with nice yield. i mean whether it's a verizon or whether it is intel, if...
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Jan 15, 2013
01/13
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economy is being under valued. $1.4 trillion is the run-up and i expect the u.s. to outperform again. >> joey? >> i think the u.s. continues to do well and the ultimate indicator is where volatility is. it's incredibly cheap and remains -- insurance can be provided to protect your portfolio. i don't think that the ultimate concerns that the people have. >> we've got news on germany and the german economy, gdp is contracting. it was down half of a percent. in 011 it was up 3% n 2012 it was up .7%. they are the engine for growth there. i'm not sure it's going to work out for you in the first half of the year. for europe, i don't think it's undervalued. it's had a great run into the u.s. >> two major banks report earnings tomorrow. much of the conversation that we're having today certainly directed to what is going on with the banks and what it could mean for the markets. jpmorgan, goldman, ahead of the market tomorrow. joe t., you take yours? >> my position has been goldman sachs, be morgan stanley. it's been that way for a long time. i like the marketplace here. i
economy is being under valued. $1.4 trillion is the run-up and i expect the u.s. to outperform again. >> joey? >> i think the u.s. continues to do well and the ultimate indicator is where volatility is. it's incredibly cheap and remains -- insurance can be provided to protect your portfolio. i don't think that the ultimate concerns that the people have. >> we've got news on germany and the german economy, gdp is contracting. it was down half of a percent. in 011 it was up 3% n...
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Jan 16, 2013
01/13
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if you believe the economy is stable which we do. i still think the high yield market will generate couponed return this year. maybe a touch better. quite frankly we'd love to see spreads widen out a little bit. we've had quite a rally at the beginning of the year, actually toward the end of last year into the beginning of the year. we'd love to see it back up a bit to create better value in the high yield market. i still think it's going to be a good year especially if we believe equities are going to have a solid performance. >> enis? >> enis taner. you mentioned global markets the yields coming down. what do you think about emerging market bonds? i know you've mentioned you like them. but the yield differential between developed markets and emerging markets is certainly compressed in the last year. >> yeah, yeah. enis, the story is everything compressing in the last year. it is -- searching out opportunity becomes the upside is limited given where spreads have gone to. we do think, though, that there are still -- you're seeing in
if you believe the economy is stable which we do. i still think the high yield market will generate couponed return this year. maybe a touch better. quite frankly we'd love to see spreads widen out a little bit. we've had quite a rally at the beginning of the year, actually toward the end of last year into the beginning of the year. we'd love to see it back up a bit to create better value in the high yield market. i still think it's going to be a good year especially if we believe equities are...